I've had quite enough of being in a Twilight Zone!  (Although not that much can be done.)

Jump from the problem – no control – to the key aspect of a solution – how long will this last?   Does anyone know?  Of course no one knows but one good indication is a chart from the Health Department showing 'New and cumulative confirmed cases by notification date'.  (I know, who reads this stuff, but can anyone suggest something else to do that's as much fun, bearing in mind my NBN internet hasn't worked for two weeks?)

This graph peaked in the period 20 to 25 March, and has been declining rapidly since.  So why is this useful?

One of the key tenets in planning is having a time scale to consider, the longer it is the more variables to consider and guesses to make.  It seems the Federal Government is working to six months, Queensland doesn't seem to have one so it's more about panic.  Virgin says it needs a Government bailout, but may actually have enough cash for nine months.

But what if the problem is overcome in April?  I've seen forecasts from reliable economists etc., that the peak may be early April.  The Health Dept graph supports those views.  I'd like to see more reasoned comment from the USA, most seem to be talking heads having their few minutes of fame, but what if the US peak is also not far behind, say the end of April?

If US investors see the curve flattening, the equities market will move in the right direction, up.  The stock market however is not the economy but it is a good indicator for consumer and business confidence.

That's not my point though.  We're all concerned as to how long these business conditions will last (you may well ask, what bloody business?).  It is tricky to plan in uncertain times, you need to understand your sales, your costs, repayments, personal expenses, where you can source loans, and how long will these assumptions apply?

Scenario planning means you look at the worst, the best, and perhaps the most likely.  But in these conditions concentrate only on the worst , focus on how you could handle that scenario, and any other scenario will be a bonus.

What to do now:

1. Get your records up to date, including 2019 (needed for all loan applications)

2. Construct a financial forecast, not so much a forecast of profits but more a cash flow forecast, over say six months

3. Ruthlessly examine your costs for savings that can be made

4. Check for measures available from the Government and elsewhere (Cash Boost in BAS, loan deferrals, other loans, JobKeeper).  None of these will be quick sources of cash

5. Get advice on whether these measures apply to you (hint – don't assume 'entitlement' as suggested by the media, some measures are complicated and conditional and at the Tax Commissioner's discretion)

6. Make applications, preferably with expert help

7. Don't forget your marketing , you need to be top of mind when customers appear again.

The point of all this is not to let you know I've got nothing better to do but to convince you to assume the worst for a number of months yet and plan for that, then closely monitor and manage your forecast/budget.  If I am out in my best guess of the end of this lockdown, (say six weeks), at the least you have a practical plan to get you through this.