The Three Rules for Making Decisions

Cameron Finlay • January 11, 2016

When I was doing my MBA every Case Study was about making decisions, often under uncertainty due to incomplete or missing information.  There just had to be a quick decision (not only due to the lecturers wanting to leave dead on time).

There is a need to choose between options in everyday situations.  They may be equally attractive or differently attractive, so trade-offs or compromises may be needed.  Mundane decisions can even be a drag on our time and energy, for example, choice of a salad (healthy) , salmon (protein) or ravioli (tasty but heavy on carbs).

Organisations have bigger needs, perhaps matters such as dropping a product, or who to hire or remove, or initiating a difficult conversation.  An infinite number of other questions follow, like when, can I do this by email, should I share the information, and on and on …..  Sometimes, we don't have all the information and if the matter seems 'very important', we just defer to obtain more information.  But often, this is more about procrastination than getting more complete information.

Harvard Business Review says research shows decisions can be made more efficiently.

1. Use habits to reduce routine decision fatigue (only Universities can find the hardest way to say something simple!)  I struggle with lunch everyday, so I always have a salad.  Boring yes but I can avoid the decision entirely and save energy for other things (should I have tea or coffee for elevenses?).  This works well for the predictable and routine, but what about unpredictable ones?

2. Use 'if/then' thinking for putting some routine into unpredictable choices.  This is a decision also based on habit or behaviour.  For example, if in a meeting the other party constantly interrupts me or wanders off-track, the if/then rule is that if the person interrupts two times without a valid or relevant point, then I will say something.

These two techniques – habit and if/then, help streamline routine choices.

3. Use a Timer for more strategic decisions or where the results are harder to predict.  These could be matters where there is no clear, right answer.  So, people collect more data, excessively weigh pros and cons, solicit additional opinion, and delay in the hope there will be an evident answer.  If the issues have been reasonably vetted, several choices seem equally attractive, there is still no clear answer, and if not possible to test on a small scale, just make the decision; 'We will decide this in 30 minutes!'.

But, what if ……. you protest?  Yes, if you spend more time on it, a better answer may emerge.  However, you've wasted precious time waiting for a burst of clarity, and that eventual clarity influences you next time to again linger fruitlessly.

However, all of these are usually decisions where there is no clear or right answer.  Perhaps, questions on how do we respond to a competitive threat, which product lines should we invest more in, reducing a budget, or organising reporting relationships.  Write down the question, several key possible decisions, set a time limit and make the best decision you can in the moment.  This reduces anxiety and the feeling of being overwhelmed; make a decision and move forward!

These are not critical issues, like tax or investment decisions, where advice or corroboration are going to be worthwhile.  In these, we determine the facts and the outcomes of choices, and then decide the most attractive choice or perhaps mitigate an unattractive position.

However, I still struggle with tea or coffee; that's just too important to rush.

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